Tuesday, January 10, 2012

Benjamin Graham and Yahoo Finance

Benjamin Graham, my mentor's mentor, the great Oracle of Omaha's mentor to be exact, and the founder of value investing back in 1928 devised a formula for equity evaluation that to this day is not outdated in the slightest.EPS *(8.5 +2g)*4.4/y. That is to say, Earnings Per Share times the non-growth rate of 8.5 plus 2 times the 5 year PEG growth rate times 4.4 the yield on high grade corporate bonds back in 1962 divided by the current yield on aaa 20 corporate bonds. What I would like to know is if the current aaa corporate bond of 2.89 is appropriate for the denominator or whether I should implement the aa 20 year rate with the higher yield, roughly 4.6 as it is more congruent with the numerator's top rated corporate yield back in 1962.


In addition, I would like to note in my journey to collect the most up to date financial data online that I have found that I can receive information comparable to that of my fidelity investment account for free from yahoo finance. Scott Thompson, now the new ceo of Yahoo, pioneered paypal's receivership and raised contracts with online suppliers to use paypal exclusively in his tenure, as of the third quarter of 2011 its total payment volume was 29.3 billion. I very much like the ability of paypal to raise its revenue via symbiotic relationships with already successful online merchants. I hope Scott Thompson sees this because I like Yahoo; as  onomatopoeia in the vernacular of Howard Dean, not as a search engine. Conversely, I feel the format for Yahoo Finance is as in depth and easy to use as any financial information website on the internet and their for should be advertised as an application. Yahoo's intrinsic value for the future may be intangible in terms of current cash flows and net margins however such applications like yahoo messenger are infinitely more popular than say google chat. As they say in literature when devising the most dynamic of archetypal characters via synecdoche, sometimes the parts are greater than the whole.

These broader strokes at personalization were the beginnings of a positive user interface on the internet long before profile data was collected and search algorithms became infinitely more advanced. As long as the product was easy to use thats all anyone cared about, now Itunes, amazon, googe etc want to guess what they're consumers are thinking and I fear they could potential delve into more than just our purchase history to draw these conclusions. For example, LinkedIn recommends friends or potential connections on a level facebook should be shameful of. The other day LinkedIn suggested I be friends with the psychiatrist I saw when my mother died 5 years ago; what? Their proprietary social algorithm I feel is connected with google and the people who search for your on multiple search engines, in any event, It was strange, surreal, and well yes the unsettling nostalgia set in; the 300 hundred dollars an hour not my mother's death. 

P.S. I realize Zynga's IPO did not go as smoothly into the upper stratosphere as Groupon's did and other analysts might have expected. However, again referring back to this symbiotic relationship of piggybacking other successful online websites with high visitor volume and adspace, how much of facebook's annual revenues are a result of Zynga's presence on the site? Mark Pincus believes in the personalization of the internet and platforming to achieve total personalization of media via tv, internet etc. There is a cult following in Mafia Wars like that of second life, people who wish to connect with other people who want a break from themselves and their real life. On facebook this idea is expressed mildly in white lies on profiles regarding their schools, relationship status, and what they did Saturday night vs what they actually did not do. Pincus understands this ability to enhance public perception of one's self a renovatio of one's imperfections or social standing..........

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